Planning a winter getaway? This year’s Super El Niño may affect where you go and what you pack. Forecasters expect some favorite spots to turn stormy and others to end up drier and sunnier than usual. A little homework now can spare you a soggy surprise later.
- Central California looks like the hardest-hit U.S. destination, and the Southeast and Central Plains could also see rough weather.
- Western ski resorts should do well, but many popular ski areas in the East may struggle for snow.
- The Caribbean, Indonesia and the southwest Pacific could have nice vacation weather, while Brazil, Argentina, East China and Japan may run wetter.
A Big Pattern That Could Linger Into 2027
El Niño happens when unusually warm water in the Pacific throws the atmosphere out of its normal rhythm. Forecasters think this one could become the strongest on record in more than 75 years. That’s a lot of warm water.
Paul Pastelok is a senior meteorologist and long-range forecaster at AccuWeather. He says El Niños usually form in late spring or early summer, build through the fall and peak in late fall and early winter. Officially, they last 7 to 11 months. The atmosphere takes time to catch up, so the effects can hang on for a couple of months after that. He thinks El Niño conditions could stretch well into the summer of 2027.
The effects reach far. U.N. emergency relief chief Tom Fletcher has warned that this El Niño could bring extreme heat, drought and floods to Latin America, eastern and southern Africa, Asia and the Pacific.
California Gets Hit Hardest While Eastern Ski Areas Wait for Snow
If you’re dreaming of a winter beach trip to the Golden State, lower your expectations. Pastelok and his team believe the West Coast will get hammered, and Central California will take the worst of it. Southern California could get its share of storms in mid to late winter. The Southeast may also face flooding and severe weather, and the Central Plains could get hit too. Past El Niños have pushed severe storms as far north as Maryland and Virginia. Colorado and New Mexico might mostly miss out.
Holiday travelers should watch the sky too. Forecasters say southern states could see more storms and heavier rain around Thanksgiving and Christmas. Northern states may get a break from snow and ice delays.
Skiers get a split verdict. Pastelok expects Western resorts to do well. Colorado should be in decent shape too, even if it doesn’t get as much snow as California and Utah. The East is a different story. The Green Mountains and White Mountains might hold up, but many popular eastern resorts could be hurting for snow. So if you live around Beaver Falls, PA, and usually drive to a nearby hill, check snow reports before you commit, or price out a trip to Utah or Colorado instead.
Sun and Surf Around Hawai’i, Mexico and the Caribbean
Hawai’i and Mexico’s Pacific coast already saw a record number of tropical storms and hurricanes this summer and fall. In Hawai’i, the rest of 2026 should trend drier, though not completely dry. El Niño weakens the trade winds, which cuts rainfall, so the November through April wet season may come in drier than average. Storms should track north of the islands and can stir up rough or high surf as they pass. Temperatures should stay near average for now, then probably climb above average in late winter, spring and summer.
Mexico could still see some tropical activity into November, just less often, and that may bring heavier rain to the west. Northern Mexico looks wetter and more unsettled this winter, with gusty winds and high-elevation snow near the U.S. border. Central and southern Mexico should run drier than average. Heading to the Caribbean? You may be in luck. The main storm track will probably stay to the north, so the weather there should be nice.
Europe and the Rest of the Map
Europe sits far from where El Niño starts in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, so the connection is weaker there. The Mediterranean often turns a little wetter and cooler, which is good news after record summer heat dried up some key rivers. Winter usually brings more wind storms to France, Scotland, England and the Netherlands. Those storms can bring short bursts of heavy rain and maybe some snow to parts of the Western Alps.
Farther away, Brazil and Argentina may pick up extra rain this season. Australia could run drier. Indonesia and the southwest Pacific look like good bets for dry, pleasant vacation weather, while East China, Beijing and Japan could be wetter.
Pack Flexibility Along With Your Rain Jacket
Long-range forecasts only give the big picture, and nobody can promise what winter will look like anywhere. So book refundable rooms and fares when you can, and choose your flight connections carefully. Some travelers also buy weather protection. Sensible Weather, for example, pays travelers back for bad weather even if they don’t cancel. Already thinking about next winter? Pastelok doubts El Niño will come back right away. Past big ones have often flipped quickly into La Niña, its cooler opposite.
